A study by a South African environmental group argues that 90% of the country's electricity generation could be derived from renewable sources such as solar, wind and wave by 2050.

Released by Earthlife Africa yesterday, the report concludes that as economic development takes place, energy demand is expected to grow significantly, particularly driven by changes in livelihood patterns of millions of people who live at or below the poverty line.

“There is a projected tripling of total energy demand and electricity requirements if current government planning (projected to 2022) are extended to 2050,” the report states.

The new study, 'The Potential of Renewable Energy in South Africa', undertaken by RAPS Consulting and Nano Energy, contains two scenarios that explore how South Africa can optimise use of its renewable resources, which are currently left untapped, while domestic hydrocarbon resources are depleted at an accelerating rate and dependence on imported oil increases.

The study suggests that solar thermal generation will become economically competitive with new coal-fired generation in about ten years.

The most ambitious scenario - the 'high renewables' scenario - contemplates a significant role for wave power starting in the mid-2020s, while hydrogen technology will come into play towards the end of the scenario period.

This scenario would achieve over 60% of total primary energy supply from renewable resources by 2050. While considerable costs will be involved, they will be investments in the local economy that have massive social and environmental benefits.

“Developing local industries for the manufacture of renewable energy technologies would reverse the ongoing trend of job losses in the energy sector,” the report noted.

A previous study by the University of Cape Town, also commissioned by Earthlife Africa, has already established that switching 15% of electricity generation to renewable resources by 2020 can be achieved with net savings to the economy (as part of a package that includes energy efficiency measures). A subsequent study showed that this would produce 36 400 new direct jobs (with no losses elsewhere).

“The studies being commissioned by the Department of Minerals and Energy and vested interests in the energy sector tend to legitimise more business as usual. They do not look at the longer-term or take account of the costs of failing to respond to escalating climate change. There is so far no commitment to quantify the social and environmental costs and benefits of energy supply, despite a process known as 'Integrated Energy Planning', so South Africa is effectively planning in the dark,” said project coordinator Richard Worthington.

However, observers have argued that the cost of South Africa shifting large-scale reliance on renewable energy would impede its ability to remain a low-cost energy producer. Studies are currently investigating the potential of energy generation projects through nuclear and thermo technology, while studies on clean-coal technology are being carried out.