The new “deal-making” approach in Washington has some suggesting that  the extended African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) is likely to be used as leverage to secure the supply of unbeneficiated rare-earth minerals for the US, law firm Webber Wentzel partner Meluleki Nzimande tells Engineering News & Mining Weekly Africa Edition.

He says, currently, however, from the perspective of African critical minerals suppliers, Agoa should be seen as a neutral factor as the US looks to reduce reliance on Chinese-controlled supply chains for critical minerals, as many minerals from African beneficiary countries already receive duty-free access and supply little to nothing to the US by way of value-added goods. 

Agoa remains important, though, in that it impacts on some of the continent’s key exports such as textiles, and automotive and agricultural goods. 

“The original logic of Agoa was to enable African countries to integrate into US supply chains to drive investment in productive sectors which would support industrialisation in the beneficiary African countries. For example, Lesotho was, for a considerable period, a major denim manufacturing hub for clothing brand Levi’s jeans, with factories producing 440 000 pairs of jeans monthly. 

This economic logic is equally applicable to Africa’s growing critical minerals sector.

“We understand that there are suggestions to add a critical minerals agreement to the potential Agoa reauthorisation to reduce US reliance on Chinese supply chains,” says Nzimande. 

However, he believes there is no need to reinvent the wheel.  

First signed into law by US President Bill Clinton on May 18, 2000, the immediately preceding iteration of Agoa officially expired on September 30, 2025, leading to the loss of preferential tariffs when exporting to the US. In February 2026, the US passed a short-term extension, reinstating Agoa retroactively, limiting its lifespan to December 31, 2026.

“The short duration of the Agoa extension – and uncertainty which followed the striking down of reciprocal tariffs by the US Supreme Court – creates significant unpredictability for future trade with the US,” adds Nzimande.

He notes that there were no significant changes to African export volumes to the US after Agoa lapsed, resulting in its utility coming into question, with African countries thinking beyond the Act and weighing up their long-term trade strategies. 

“The Brookings Institute has noted that some countries in Africa experienced increases in their exports to the US after Agoa lapsed, as most of the export basket – just more than 50% – to the US is in the minerals and metals sector, which is not affected significantly by the loss of tariff preferences.”

Rare earths are considered to be critical by the US and others as they are essential for modern technology, defence systems and clean energy technology. 

“The disruption of global supply chains resulting from sustained geopolitical upheavals has distorted the supply of rare earth minerals and created shortages – real or artificial. Add to this the fact that China, a country which the US considers to be its rival, not only sources rare earth minerals domestically, but also internationally, which grants it a relative advantage.” 

While the US does mine and process its own rare earth resources, historically the country does not have the requisite in-country processing capacity to refine enough minerals to meet domestic demand. Consequently, the US imported 67% of its rare earths demand in 2025, with 71% of that demand met by imports from China, according to the 2026 US Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Commodity Summaries report.

“In such an environment, it is natural that African States with known mineral resources would be viewed by the US as potential suppliers, considering that they make up nearly one-third (30%) of the world’s reserves,” says Nzimande. African States should not underestimate their potential negotiating strength.

Five of the world’s top 15 destinations for rare earths exploration over the past year have been Agoa beneficiaries, including South Africa, Malawi, Uganda, Tanzania and Angola, and Nzimande explains that this is not coincidental.

So while it is predicted that Africa will produce 10% of the world’s supply of rare earth minerals by 2030, this leaves the issue, for the US, of processing capacity outside of China unresolved.     

The USGS report highlights moves to increase domestic processing capacity in the US: “In the rare earths sector, a mining and processing facility in California expanded separation and processing capacity in 2025. A company based in New Hampshire expanded capacity to manufacture rare earth metals, and a rare earth separation company based in Louisiana progressed toward commercial-scale production.”

With demand for Africa’s critical minerals a given, Nzimande underscores that a real opportunity for beneficiary countries would lie in leveraging Agoa to procure local processing of the critical minerals the US needs, and currently does not process onshore. 

In this way, Agoa would serve as an instrument through which value-added products made from these minerals enjoy preferential access to the US market. 

“Investment by US companies in the processing of critical minerals as close to source as possible in the beneficiary countries is a real opportunity. Such  arrangement would produce a win-win partnership, thus making Agoa a strategic instrument attracting bipartisan support,” he explains. 

Beyond the minerals sector, the multiplier effect of Agoa’s extension in this manner would create more vibrancy in African economies that ultimately supports industrialisation in the supplying African beneficiary countries.   

To leverage such a position of negotiating strength and to enhance the benefits of a potential further Agoa extension, Nzimande says, African countries should prioritise bureaucratic agility and efficacy; reliability of base infrastructure such as energy, transport and logistics, and water; safety and security; and, importantly, security of tenure in respect of land and property rights.