As the war in the Middle East increasingly heightens the risk of an energy crisis amid pressure on the Strait of Hormuz, the Communications Risk Information Centre (COMRiC) on Wednesday warned the conflict is rapidly becoming a South African communications risk as well.

The strait traditionally accounts for about 20% of global oil and liquified natural gas flows, with any instability delivering price and logistics shocks globally.

While indirect, the risk to South Africa is real, with higher fuel costs, supply delays, infrastructure strain and opportunistic crime starting to impact the country’s communications systems.

“A distant war no longer stays distant. It travels through fuel prices, freight routes, supply chains, cables, digital systems and criminal opportunity,” COMRiC CEO Advocate Thokozani Mvelase explained.

“For South Africa, this means the communications sector is exposed long before any direct physical threat reaches our shores.”

South Africa’s communications sector depends on diesel for backup power, on secure planning to move equipment and maintain sites, on digital payment systems to keep commerce flowing and on resilient networks to support consumers and companies through disruption.

Even a partial weakening of network resilience has wide economic and social consequences for the country, which has 45.34-million Internet users.

With fuel now a part of network resilience in South Africa, diesel availability is a concern.

“If diesel becomes more expensive or harder to secure, if logistics slow down and if already vulnerable infrastructure comes under greater pressure, the effect is felt in connectivity, service continuity, operating costs and consumer confidence.”

Network operators rely on diesel and battery power to keep services running, and many have diverted funds away from expansion and technology upgrades towards security and fuel costs.

“A Middle East shock that drives up diesel prices or disrupts supply can therefore feed directly into the cost and reliability of keeping towers, base stations, switching facilities and support operations running.”

COMRiC said South Africa is already feeling the pressure, as operators are already managing persistent power instability, rising security costs and worsening criminal attacks on infrastructure.

“The communications sector is not operating in a vacuum. We are already seeing how power disruption, infrastructure theft, vandalism and cyber risk combine to raise pressure on networks.

The cost of stolen telecommunications equipment increased nearly 200% to R200-million in 2025.

“That points to a dangerous overlap between economic stress and the spectre of crime. When backup systems, batteries, generators, diesel stores and remote sites become more critical, they also become more attractive targets.

"A global conflict that intensifies fuel strain and cost inflation can deepen those vulnerabilities, which has consequences for companies trying to stay online, for households trying to stay connected and for consumers who now depend on digital platforms and payment systems for everyday life.”

The consumer impact can be broad, as higher fuel and freight costs can translate into more expensive service delivery, slower repairs, reduced resilience during outages and rising pressure on data and communications costs.

In addition, digital payments are now a strategic priority for the South African Reserve Bank as part of a more inclusive and secure national payments system, which means communications disruption is also a financial system issue.

COMRiC urged companies to act with urgency.

“They should stress-test diesel supply arrangements, strengthen site security, review backup power plans, tighten cyber vigilance, coordinate more closely across operations, security and risk teams and prepare clear customer communications for service interruptions.

“South Africa’s economy is deeply dependent on always-on digital connectivity. The message is simple. The Middle East war is not only an oil story. It is a business continuity story, a communications resilience story, and a consumer risk story. South African companies need to prepare now.”