Financial services firm FNB and research institute the Bureau for Economic Research’s (BER’s) Civil Confidence Index declined to 43 in the first quarter, from 52 in the fourth quarter of 2025, returning to the same level as in the third quarter of 2025.

The current reading means that more than 55% of respondents were dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions.

“Following the relatively upbeat confidence reading at the end of last year, the outcome for this quarter is disappointing, although the softer sentiment reading aligns with weaker construction activity.

“Importantly, the trend in activity growth over the past few quarters remains positive,” says FNB senior economist Siphamandla Mkhwanazi.

Overall, civil contractors are more pessimistic than what is suggested by the underlying trends, especially in activity.

Factors weighing on sentiment, as cited by respondents, include delayed payments from clients, a lack of tenders and a lack of investment in the energy grid. The latter is particularly relevant to the pace of work related to renewable-energy generation, he notes.

Work is expected to pick up in the short term, with order books remaining stable at just below the long-term average.

In addition, respondents themselves expect an uptick in activity next quarter.

The real value of investment in civil construction was down only 0.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared with a 2.9% contraction recorded in the third quarter of 2025, according to Statistics South Africa, Mkhwanazi points out.

Growth in construction work likely contracted at a slightly faster pace in the first quarter.

Sentiment weakened despite relatively supportive trends in activity, profitability and order books when compared with long-term averages.

“Although work in the civil construction sector likely slowed in the first quarter of 2026, it is still on a broadly upward trajectory. Further progress, however, is likely to remain constrained,” he says.

However, despite the deterioration in activity this quarter, the outlook remains reasonably upbeat on the back of expectations for an improvement in work in the second quarter and the order books that remain better than the long-term average.