Gold is set to reach $3 000/oz over the next six to 18 months on increasing investor inflows amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will eventually cut interest rates, Citigroup said, adding to a roll call of Wall Street banks that have raised forecasts.
Analysts led by Aakash Doshi upgraded their estimate for average prices in 2024 to $2 350/oz and made a “massive 40% upward revision” in their 2025 prediction to $2 875/oz. Trading will “regularly test and breach” $2 500/oz in the second half, they wrote.
Bullion has been on a tear, driven by wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, buying by central banks and consumer demand in China.
Goldman Sachs Group says the precious metal is in an “unshakable bull market,” and has raised its year-end forecast to $2 700/oz. UBS Group AG sees $2 500/oz by year-end.
According to Citigroup, gold will be driven by increased flows from managed money players, who are already showing signs of catching up with demand from physical consumers in China and central banks. The start of a Fed cutting cycle – or a potential recession scenario – into 2025 will provide further impetus for investment demand.
Inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds – largely absent in recent years – will “buffer the path to $3 000/oz”, the analysts wrote.