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SA narrowly avoids a recession

6th June 2023

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Despite record levels of loadshedding and aggressive rate hikes, South Africa's first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.4%.

This was exactly in line with economists' consensus forecast, according to a Thomson Reuters poll.

The economy shrank by a revised 1.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022. Growth in the first quarter means South Africa avoided a technical recession, which is defined as two consecutive quarters of a shrinking economy.

While the South African economy is now slightly bigger than before the Covid pandemic, it still remains below its peak in the third quarter of last year.

The South African Reserve Bank previously estimated that loadshedding will shave two percentage points off GDP growth this year. The bank's aggressive rate hiking cycle - 475 basis points over 18 months – is also restricting the economy.

Still, the manufacturing industry continued to grow (1.5%), with food and beverage output expanding the most in the first quarter.

The finance, real estate and business services industry (+0.6%), personal services industry (+0.8%) and the transport, storage and communication industry (+1.1%) also saw growth.

However, agriculture slumped by 12.3%, weighed down by a decline in the production of field crops and animal products, Statistics SA said. The motor trade also recorded a decrease in economic activity.

Edited by News24Wire

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