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Reserve Bank to first cut repo rate in November - Reuters poll

18th June 2024

By: Reuters

  

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South Africa's Reserve Bank is seen waiting until November before it cuts its repo rate as economists continue to roll back their expectations when policy easing kicks off in response to slowing inflation, a Reuters poll found.

The poll was taken before the African National Congress (ANC) and its largest rival, the white-led, pro-business Democratic Alliance, agreed on Friday to work together in a new government of national unity, a step change after 30 years of ANC rule.

In previous surveys economists thought rates would be cut sooner, with last month's poll predicting a cut in the third quarter. However, the median forecast in the June 6 to 13 poll suggested the central bank will keep the repo rate unchanged at 8.25% at its July and September meetings and cut in November.

Eight of 20 economists forecast a quarter-point cut in November, seven predicted a 50-basis-point move, two saw a 75-basis-point cut, while three expected no change.

Annabel Bishop, chief economist at Investec, said that while the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) did not necessarily follow the US Federal Reserve's policy path, it did have some impact.

The Fed kept rates unchanged last week and pushed out the start of rate cuts for the world's biggest economy to perhaps as late as December. It holds its next meeting on July 31, with no move expected then.

The Fed's actions tend to affect smaller emerging market nations, such as South Africa, by influencing capital flows in and out of those markets.

Inflation in South Africa is expected to continue moderating in coming months, averaging 5.0% this year, 4.6% next year and 4.5% in 2026. Economists expect the economy to grow 1.0% this year, 1.5% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, the same as in last month's poll.

"We continue to expect 1.0% GDP growth this year driven by less severe power outages (shortages) and lower inflation," Gina Schoeman, economist at Citi said in a note.

South Africa's state power utility Eskom has said it would probably be able to limit rolling power cuts over the winter months as the outlook for its power stations had improved.

While Schoeman noted reforms in the energy sector, she said further improvements were needed in the freight logistics sector that was limiting the economy's growth potential at 2%.

Edited by Reuters

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