Analysis by policy think tank the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) shows that seven of the 20 largest fossil fuel producing countries make no mention of fossil fuel production in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and six others stated an intention to continue or increase production.

“In a world that has agreed to transition away from fossil fuels, producers that keep mining and drilling are vulnerable to market shocks. NDCs and long-term strategies can be used to guide an orderly transition and attract investment into alternative growth sectors,” said IISD policy adviser Paola Yanguas Parra.

Only one of the 20 largest fossil fuel producing countries, the EU, representing coal producers Germany and Poland, mentioned a pathway to decrease production.

Governments are due to submit the next generation of NDCs in 2025. These will be the first since the international agreement at COP28 to transition away from fossil fuels.

The 20 biggest fossil fuel producing countries together account for 93% of global coal production, 80% of oil and 77% of gas. South Africa is one of the 20 countries.

South Africa's most recent NDC identified the economic and social consequences of the energy transition for the coal-producing province of Mpumalanga as a key challenge and called for international support for a just transition.

This allowed the government to make the investment case for a Just Energy Transition Partnership with several funder countries and, while the implementation had not lived up to its early promise, the vision was sound, the institute said.

The IISD report calls on fossil fuel producers to map a transition away from fossil fuels in NDCs.

The report identifies five elements governments can include in NDCs and long-term strategies to reflect the outcome of the global stocktake at COP28. The first element that governments can include in their long-term transition plans is information on national fossil fuel production, future production plans, reserves and support.

The second element is targets and pathways to wind down fossil fuel production. This could be in the form of a commitment to reduce or phase out fossil fuel production by a target date, the institute said.

The third element governments can include in long-terms strategies is policies and measures to disincentivise or constrain fossil fuel production through, for example, moratoriums on development, production and export caps, reform of production subsidies and increased taxes on extraction.

The fourth element is policies and measures to support workers and communities in the transition and diversify the economy away from fossil fuel production.

The fifth element governments can include in transition plans is information related to equity, and international support and cooperation, the IISD recommended.

“The science is clear: there is no room for new fossil fuel infrastructure in any credible pathway to Paris goals, and fossil fuel production and consumption must be rapidly phased out. The time is now for fossil fuel producing countries to align their climate plans with what the world urgently needs,” said IISD policy adviser Natalie Jones.