A new study by the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA), in collaboration with the National Planning Commission (NPC), has found that, while significant progress has been made in expanding connectivity over the past decade, achieving universal high-speed broadband will require substantial additional investment over the next decade.

The ‘South Africa’s Digital Connectivity Investment Roadmap to 2035’ report, through a comprehensive ecosystem approach, assessed infrastructure across international connectivity, backbone and metropolitan networks, data centres, spectrum systems and last-mile access, alongside affordability, digital skills and institutional capacity, as key enablers of meaningful connectivity.

The roadmap identified the investment gaps, priority actions and partnership opportunities required to expand reliable high-speed broadband and accelerate South Africa’s progress toward an inclusive digital economy.

Despite mobile broadband networks now covering most of South Africa’s population and fibre networks having expanded rapidly in metropolitan areas, a significant connectivity gap remains.

The study pointed out that urban areas increasingly benefit from high-capacity fibre networks and emerging 5G services, while many rural and periurban communities continue to rely primarily on mobile connectivity and remain underserved by high-speed fixed broadband.

Affordability constraints and limited digital capabilities also prevent many households from fully participating in the digital economy.

“Bridging this connectivity gap will require sustained investment from both the public and private sectors, supported by innovative financing mechanisms and an enabling regulatory environment,” the report highlighted, noting that South Africa will need to invest, in 2025 real terms, between R108-billion, under an ‘economic stagnation’ scenario, and R142-billion, under an ‘economic decline’ scenario, to connect all households to high-speed broadband.

The total investment quantum required to connect all households to high-speed broadband is driven by specific cost drivers, particularly distance for fixed network infrastructure and the expected minimum download speed for wireless technologies.

Distance is the single most significant cost driver in fibre network deployment, with the cost of connecting households within five kilometres of a fibre node substantially lower than for those located 20 km or more away.

“This cost gradient underscores a critical area where the State can play a catalytic role in reducing the cost to communicate, particularly by addressing middle-mile infrastructure gaps.”

Key State-owned entities, including Broadband Infraco, Sentech, Transnet, the Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa, the South African National Roads Agency and Eskom, hold extensive network assets along strategic corridors.

“These middle-mile assets could be competitively leveraged to lower fibre deployment costs through coordinated access, infrastructure sharing and open-access frameworks. Such an approach would not only reduce capital expenditure for network operators but also accelerate broadband expansion into underserved and high-cost areas,” the report pointed out.

Meanwhile, the key cost driver in the wireless network infrastructure environment is the target download speed, as increasing the minimum mobile download speed substantially increases the total investment costs.

Achieving universal high-speed access, at 100 Mb/s, will require targeted upgrades, technology diversification and greater rural investment, with affordability remaining the primary, income-driven barrier.

A key finding of the study is that no single technology can deliver universal connectivity across South Africa’s diverse geography, and the country’s digital infrastructure strategy must rely on a complementary mix of technologies.

“Fibre networks will remain the backbone of the digital economy, delivering the high-capacity infrastructure required for data-intensive applications, cloud computing, digital public services, and emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence. Fibre-to-the-home and fibre-to-the-business deployments will continue expanding in dense urban and peri-urban areas where commercial investment is viable.”

Mobile broadband and fixed wireless access, enabled by widespread 4G coverage and expanding 5G networks, will play a critical role in extending high-speed connectivity across suburban, periurban and rural areas.

“These wireless platforms provide a cost-efficient means of delivering broadband to millions of households while leveraging existing tower infrastructure and spectrum assets,” the report explained.

Further, satellite connectivity will provide an essential complementary solution in remote and sparsely populated areas where fibre or mobile expansion is not economically viable.

This multi-technology architecture, combining fibre backbones, wireless access networks and satellite coverage, offers the most practical and fiscally sustainable pathway toward universal connectivity in South Africa.

The research undertaken translates digital policy ambitions into a rigorous, costed, and fiscally aligned investment roadmap for Digital Connectivity Infrastructure.

“This roadmap provides the country with a current, comprehensive, costed view of what is required to bridge the digital divide and achieve universal access to digital connectivity by 2035. It outlines a common, evidence-informed basis for coordinated planning across the public and private sector, in order to drive investment and delivery of the roadmap,” said NPC Commissioner Mark Swilling.

Further, by clarifying institutional roles and strengthening intergovernmental coordination, the study establishes a practical platform for execution.

“South Africa’s Digital Connectivity Investment Roadmap to 2035 goes beyond policy to deliver a clear implementation framework spanning spectrum reform, municipal capacity, digital skills, universal service, and demand-side support,” added DBSA CEO Boitumelo Mosako.

To support implementation, the study outlined three structured investment pathways for the period 2025 to 2035, namely a mobile-centric, least-cost model suited to constrained economic conditions; a hybrid mobile and fibre pathway balancing efficiency and performance; and a fibre-dominant, high-capacity trajectory aligned with economic recovery and enhanced competitiveness.

These pathways articulate trade-offs between fiscal effort, service ambition, technology mix, and long-term economic returns.

Overall, the study provides the country with an evidence-based, fiscally grounded roadmap to achieve universal and meaningful connectivity, now requiring coordinated action to unlock its full potential for inclusive growth, better services, and long-term resilience.

The study directly supports the National Development Plan Vision 2030, South Africa Connect, the National Infrastructure Plan 2050 and the Sustainable Development Goals.

The study applied the World Bank’s Beyond the Gap framework alongside the International Telecommunication Union’s Universal and Meaningful Connectivity standards.