The International Air Transport Association (IATA), which is the global representative body of the airline industry, has reported that air cargo worldwide during July this year was 9.7% down, in year-on-year (y-o-y) terms, but only 3.5% below its level in July 2019, which was during the last pre-Covid-19 pandemic year. International air cargo traffic in July was down 10.2%, y-o-y.

Total air cargo capacity in July was 3.6% up, y-o-y, and international air cargo capacity had increased by 6.8% y-o-y. However total air cargo capacity was still 7.8% below the figure for July 2019.

“Air cargo is tracking at near 2019 levels although it has taken a step back compared to the extraordinary performance of 2020/21,” observed IATA director-general Willie Walsh. “Volatility resulting from supply chain constraints and evolving economic conditions has seen cargo markets essentially move sideways since April. July data shows us that air cargo continues to hold its own, but as is the case for almost all industries, we’ll need to carefully watch both economic and political developments over the coming months.”

There were three major factors that affected (and were continuing to affect) the air cargo markets. One was a decrease in new export orders in all markets, except China (where a strong upward trend emerged in June). Another was the continuing war in Ukraine, which was impairing European air cargo capacity, because Ukrainian and Russian operators were key players in that market. The third was the continued recovery in the global goods trade during the second quarter of this year, coupled with the further relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions in China, which would boost both maritime and air cargo.

In terms of IATA’s regions, Latin America recorded the best y-o-y performance in July, with an increase in air cargo traffic of 9.2%. Africa was the second-best performing region, recording a decrease of only 3.5%. North America saw a decline of 5.7%, followed by the Asia Pacific with a drop of 9%. The Middle East reported a decrease of 10.9%.

By far the worst performing region was Europe, with a fall of 17%. This was largely the result of the war in Ukraine, although shortages of labour and reduced Asian manufacturing output owing to Covid-19’s Omicron variant also contributed.